Himachal Pradesh is expected to receive above normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year. According to a forecast issued by the MeT Department, the state may receive more than 109 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall between June and September. The normal rainfall for Himachal Pradesh during this period, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 734.4 mm.
Most parts of the state are likely to witness above normal rainfall in June as well. The normal rainfall for the month of June has been recorded as 101.1 mm. The Meteorological Department has stated that while increased rainfall can benefit agriculture and water resources, it also brings risks such as flooding, transportation disruptions, health concerns, and damage to ecosystems.
To address these potential challenges, the department has suggested measures such as improving infrastructure, utilizing IMD’s early warning systems, enhancing conservation and monitoring initiatives, and establishing response mechanisms in vulnerable areas.
The forecast comes at a time when the state has just experienced a deficit in pre-monsoon rainfall. Between March 1 and May 31, Himachal Pradesh received 27 percent less rainfall than normal. Against the expected 240.7 mm, only 175.0 mm of rain was recorded. This ranks as the 39th lowest pre-monsoon rainfall in the state since 1901. The lowest pre-monsoon rainfall was 63.8 mm, recorded in 2022.
District-wise, Sirmaur received very heavy rainfall in the pre-monsoon period, while Solan also recorded more than normal rain. Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, Shimla, Una, Hamirpur, and Bilaspur received rainfall close to normal levels. On the other hand, Chamba, Lahaul-Spiti, and Kinnaur districts experienced below-normal rainfall. Some heavy rain events were reported during March and May in different parts of the state.
According to the weekly forecast, light rain is expected at some places on June 2 and 5. Light to moderate rain is likely at many locations on June 3 and 4, while on June 6, light rainfall is expected over isolated higher reaches. The weather is expected to remain dry for the rest of the week.
There will be no major change in maximum temperatures over most parts of the state for the next two to three days. After that, temperatures are likely to gradually rise by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius over the following three to four days. Similarly, no significant change is expected in minimum temperatures in the short term, followed by a gradual rise in the same range.
