New Delhi: A new report by the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) has warned that China’s rapid militarisation of the Tibetan Plateau is causing severe environmental damage, endangering the fragile Himalayan ecosystem and threatening water security for millions across South and Southeast Asia, including India.
The report, titled “The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet,” highlights that the extensive construction of military infrastructure—roads, tunnels, airstrips, and bases—on permafrost zones and near glacial systems is accelerating land degradation and triggering climate instability.
Permafrost Degradation and Glacial Retreat
The Tibetan Plateau, often called the “Third Pole,” hosts around 1.06 million sq. km of permafrost and approximately 46,000 glaciers covering 105,000 sq. km. These glaciers feed Asia’s major rivers, including the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Ganges, which sustain over 1.4 billion people downstream.
ISDP’s findings reveal that rising ground temperatures—between 0.1°C and 0.5°C annually over the past three decades—are destabilising permafrost. Military projects, including heavy vehicle movement and construction, exacerbate this process by releasing trapped greenhouse gases and disturbing fragile hydrological systems. Satellite data also shows heat islands around major military installations, with temperature anomalies ranging from +0.55°C to +3.9°C compared to undisturbed areas.
Glaciologists cited in the report warn that such localised warming, combined with black carbon emissions from military fuel combustion, accelerates glacier retreat. This process directly affects river flow patterns and seasonal water availability.
Impact on India’s Rivers and Water Security
Research indicates that Tibet’s glaciers feed the headwaters of key Indian rivers such as the Indus, Sutlej, and Brahmaputra. Any reduction in glacier mass or alteration in runoff patterns can lead to seasonal water shortages, flash floods, and long-term decline in river discharge.
A 2022 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) projected that Himalayan glaciers could lose up to 75% of their ice by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. Experts say militarisation accelerates this trend by adding anthropogenic stress to already warming glaciers.
The Brahmaputra River, vital for India’s Northeast, originates in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo. Disruptions in its natural flow due to glacier melt or artificial interventions increase risks of water scarcity and even potential water conflicts between India and China. The Sutlej River, critical for Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, also originates in Tibet, making downstream regions highly vulnerable to these ecological shifts.
Environmentalists warn that altered river regimes could impact agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water availability across India. Reduced glacial runoff in summer months may coincide with higher irrigation demand, creating severe stress on farming communities.
Calls for Urgent Reforms
The ISDP report identified 35,000 sq. km of highly vulnerable terrain that should be excluded from heavy military activity. It recommends creating ecological preservation zones around glaciers and water sources, adopting stricter construction standards, and investing in technologies that protect permafrost.
The report also urged Beijing to improve transparency and cooperate with international environmental organisations, warning that Tibet’s environmental degradation has cross-border implications for climate stability and water security.
Strategic Motives and Domestic Control
Observers note that external and internal concerns drive China’s military expansion in Tibet. Externally, Tibet serves as a buffer in China’s tense relationship with India, particularly after incidents like the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. Internally, the heavy troop presence enables Beijing to maintain tight control over Tibetan cultural and political movements.
“The militarisation of Tibet is not just a security issue—it is an ecological time bomb with far-reaching consequences for Asia’s water future,” the report concluded.
