As the fate of political parties is in the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), people are waiting for the ‘D-Day’ when the counting of votes will begin. Who will win is a big question that not even the political pundits are able to guess this time. Now you can imagine the situation out there. The political equation in this otherwise small hilly state, as many guessed earlier, isn’t going to be that easy. The political puzzle this time has created more of a chaos and a situation quite critical for the political parties.
The counting of votes will begin on 18 December 2017 – the same day when Gujarat election results will be announced. As the state has the tendency to change the government after every five years, something we have witnessed from 1990, wherein the incumbent has always been defeated. Therefore, the change in government seems imminent. However, the calculations that can actually help us reach at this conclusion are more baffling than actually indicating a simple, clear answer to the million-dollar question.
The election seems more unpredictable this time than in the years or rather in the terms gone by. The basis for this unpredictability is a fix over 20 seats in the state. When we say 20 seats, it means a big number in any state, particularly a small one like Himachal where there are just 68 assembly seats. The pulse rate is increasing as we gradually inch towards the result day.
Now keeping the trends in mind, will BJP form the government take over come December 18? Well, if we keep some of the factors in mind, the things seem otherwise. Congress has something to bank upon for sure. During its tenure, the government has done a lot many things that may prove deterrent. It has implemented 14th finance commission recommendations which is likely to affect the things. A huge number of healthcare centers and colleges have been opened, which can be also influence the decision of the electoral.
Other thing that can influence the public opinion for a change in government this time is the fact that incumbent government has created a massive recruitment drive. It has recruited more than 45,000 employees including the new ones and those confirmed as regular after the successful completion of their five-year long contractual obligation. This employment bait will surely lure the educated youth of the state.
This is perhaps the reason behind the confidence of the incumbent congress this time unlike the past when the ruling party used to feel at the back foot considering the fact that voters always gives chance to another political party as the new term is started. There are other reasons also. Particularly, the Modi wave was dimmed owing to the GST and the demonetization planks, which doesn’t seem to go in the favor of the party or masses at large.
However, BJP’s aggressive campaign has targeted over the alleged corruption cases against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh and service extension to many retired employees. Increasing crime rate especially Kotkhai Rape and Murder case, Hoshiyar Singh murder were featured in the BJP’s campaign where party state and national leaders leaves no stone unturned to target Congress in its campaign. The issue of lack of development had also made headline in the election, where state BJP accused Congress backed state government for failing to take benefits from the Union Government.
Well, now it remains to be seen whether the hoi polloi in the state takes the route well known to all or create a new equation to change the ‘by default’ pattern.
